The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $1M at entry to $7M today; $10M of the plan remains to the $18M exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 74.5% toward 45% and bank the $1M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $60M vs $65M, EBITDA $22M vs $25M, EBITDA Margin 36.7% vs 38.0%
$10M of enterprise value stands between today's $7M and the $18M exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$1M of $2M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $22M of EBITDA that is $44M–$66M from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $60M of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 7.64M | 60M | 91.72M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 2.6% | 3.06% | 3.67% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 0.98% | 1.13% | 1.38% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 0.99M | 8.87M | 16.43M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 0.46× | 0.32× | 0.23× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 0.61× | 0.84× | 1.07× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 74.5%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $22M of EBITDA, that's $44M–$66M of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 0.84× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $1M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.