The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$9.99B of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($104M revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $55M. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt/EBITDA 0.1x vs 0.0x, EBITDA $1.85B vs $2.00B, Revenue Growth 9.6% vs 12.0%
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$55M of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $9.99B of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
India (Tier 3 Cities) GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $9.99B of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $104M of revenue · fundable within $9.99B of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (India (Tier 3 Cities)) | Portfolio Management Services | India (Tier 3 Cities) | $26M | 7.03% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | Alternative Investment Funds | West | $18M | 8.2% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | Alternative Investment Funds | Multi | $16M | 7.62% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (Asia-Pacific) | Mutual Funds | Asia-Pacific | $13M | 6.45% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Portfolio Management Services | Asia-Pacific | $12M | 8.79% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (India (Tier 2 Cities)) | Portfolio Management Services | India (Tier 2 Cities) | $11M | 10.55% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (India (Tier 1 Cities)) | Mutual Funds | India (Tier 1 Cities) | $9M | 9.38% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($55M) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $9.99B of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.