The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $36M at entry to $438M today; $595M of the plan remains to the $1.03B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 90.2% toward 45% and bank the $10M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $3.83B vs $4.10B, EBITDA $1.85B vs $2.00B, EBITDA Margin 48.4% vs 50.0%
$595M of enterprise value stands between today's $438M and the $1.03B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$10M of $14M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $1.85B of EBITDA that is $3.70B–$5.55B from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $3.83B of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 58.6M | 460M | 703.19M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 19.92% | 23.44% | 28.13% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 7.5% | 8.67% | 10.55% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 7.62M | 67.97M | 125.99M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 3.52× | 2.46× | 1.76× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 4.69× | 6.45× | 8.2× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 90.2%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $1.85B of EBITDA, that's $3.70B–$5.55B of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 6.45× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $10M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.