Quality of earnings, 13-week cash, covenant runway, working-capital unlock and the value levers behind the PE thesis.
Liquidity of $6500M (≈ 6 weeks of cover) and $49200M of deal capacity make capital the lever, not the constraint. Free the trapped cash first: normalizing DSO to 48d releases ≈ $120.7M and clears $1071.8M of overdue receivables.
8 of 8 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $44.05B vs $46.00B, EBITDA $10.25B vs $11.00B, EBITDA Margin 23.3% vs 24.0%
Move to credit hold pending paydown; reforecast ARR net of likely churn.
Distress filings + overdue AR; churn risk High on $6.4M account.
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
Closing the DSO gap releases ≈ $120.7M of one-time cash; $1071.8M is already >60 days overdue and at collection risk.
Targeted collections sprint on $0.9M; tighten milestone billing on ISC projects.
ISC (67d), Vichy (66d), Amazon account (67d) lifting blended DSO.
$5087.45M of add-backs (50% of adj.) — the diligence-grade walk.
Organic vs. acquisitive vs. price/mix vs. cost.
Net weekly cash (bars) and ending cash (line) vs. $20M minimum. Forecast trough: $1610.49M.
Net Debt/EBITDA deleveraging path against the 5.5x covenant ceiling.
Normalizing laggard brands to a 50-day DSO releases ~$477.4M of one-time cash.
Concentrated in newer cohorts (ISC, Signet, RFI) where billing discipline lags integration — the fastest cash win this fiscal year.
Annuity growth and where EBITDA is generated.
Total AR $6515M
Overdue (>60d) = $1071.8M at collection risk.
Accounts ranked by DSO and credit/churn risk.
| Account | Revenue | DSO | NRR | Credit/Churn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $359.13M | 67d | 97% | High |
| Sephora | $723.88M | 63d | 104% | Medium |
| Douglas | $230.07M | 59d | 100% | Medium |
| Carrefour | $796.83M | 58d | 112% | Low |
| Target | $404.03M | 55d | 105% | Medium |
| IBM | $544.31M | 52d | 101% | Medium |
| UPS | $634.1M | 49d | 106% | Low |
| Walmart | $1043.73M | 47d | 108% | Low |
| CVS | $903.45M | 44d | 119% | Low |
| Ulta Beauty | $325.46M | 41d | 110% | Low |
EBITDA uplift, DSO normalization and synergy realization (as-acquired → current).
| Brand (cohort) | Acq. | Revenue | EBITDA % | DSO | Integration | Synergy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancôme | 2021 | $1907.9M | 505.03→785.61% | 71→58d | 100% | 92% | Integrated |
| Garnier | 2021 | $1234.52M | 448.92→729.49% | 66→54d | 100% | 90% | Integrated |
| L'Oréal Paris | 2022 | $5387.01M | 617.26→897.83% | 68→56d | 95% | 88% | Integrated |
| La Roche-Posay | 2023 | $3254.65M | 561.15→729.49% | 70→61d | 82% | 74% | In progress |
| Kérastase | 2024 | $2300.7M | 505.03→617.26% | 73→67d | 60% | 55% | In progress |
| Maybelline New York | 2024 | $2076.24M | 505.03→673.38% | 71→60d | 80% | 78% | In progress |
| Vichy | 2024 | $1627.32M | 448.92→505.03% | 69→66d | 45% | 40% | Early |
Partner spend, DPO (working-capital lever), delivery and risk.
| Supplier | Category | Spend | DPO | OTIF | Score | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Givaudan | Video Surveillance | $3591.34M | 45d | 96% | 91 | Low |
| Firmenich | Fire & Access | $3254.65M | 42d | 93% | 88 | Low |
| BASF | Critical Comms | $2300.7M | 38d | 90% | 85 | Medium |
| Dow | Video Surveillance | $1515.1M | 36d | 89% | 83 | Medium |
| Symrise | Video VMS | $1290.64M | 40d | 95% | 87 | Low |
| Clariant | AV / Collaboration | $1066.18M | 44d | 92% | 86 | Low |