The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $327.48B at entry to $4017.93B today; $5460.18B of the plan remains to the $9478.11B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 25% toward 45% and bank the $954M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $44.05B vs $46.00B, EBITDA $10.25B vs $11.00B, EBITDA Margin 23.3% vs 24.0%
$5460.18B of enterprise value stands between today's $4017.93B and the $9478.11B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$954M of $1.35B run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $10.25B of EBITDA that is $20.50B–$30.75B from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $44.05B of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 5611.47M | 44050M | 67337.58M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 1907.9% | 2244.59% | 2693.5% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 718.27% | 830.5% | 1010.06% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 729.49M | 6509.3M | 12064.65M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 336.69× | 235.68× | 168.34× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 448.92× | 617.26× | 785.61× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 25%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $10.25B of EBITDA, that's $20.50B–$30.75B of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 617.26× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $954M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.