The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$49.20B of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($9.99B revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $5.22B. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
2 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt / EBITDA 0.7x vs 0.6x, EBITDA $10.25B vs $11.00B, Revenue Growth 4.0% vs 6.0%
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$5.22B of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $49.20B of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
Latin America GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $49.20B of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $9.99B of revenue · fundable within $49.20B of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (Latin America) | L'Oréal Luxe | Latin America | $2.53B | 673.38% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | Dermatological Beauty | West | $1.68B | 785.61% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | Dermatological Beauty | Multi | $1.57B | 729.49% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (South Asia Pacific, Middle East, North Africa) | Consumer Products Division | South Asia Pacific, Middle East, North Africa | $1.23B | 617.26% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | L'Oréal Luxe | South Asia Pacific, Middle East, North Africa | $1.12B | 841.72% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (North America) | L'Oréal Luxe | North America | $1.01B | 1010.06% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (Europe) | Consumer Products Division | Europe | $842M | 897.83% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($5.22B) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $49.20B of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.