The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$14M of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($7M revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $4M. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt/EBITDA 1.7x vs 1.5x, EBITDA $4M vs $4M, Revenue Growth 19.3% vs 22.0%
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$4M of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $14M of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
Maharashtra GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $14M of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $7M of revenue · fundable within $14M of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (Maharashtra) | Warehousing | Maharashtra | $2M | 0.45% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | E-fulfilment | West | $1M | 0.53% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | E-fulfilment | Multi | $1M | 0.49% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (Bangalore) | Transport & Logistics | Bangalore | $1M | 0.41% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Warehousing | Bangalore | $1M | 0.57% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (Pune) | Warehousing | Pune | $1M | 0.68% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (Mumbai) | Transport & Logistics | Mumbai | $1M | 0.6% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($4M) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $14M of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.