The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $0M at entry to $2M today; $3M of the plan remains to the $4M exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 16.1% toward 45% and bank the $1M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $30M vs $32M, EBITDA $4M vs $4M, EBITDA Margin 12.8% vs 14.0%
$3M of enterprise value stands between today's $2M and the $4M exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$1M of $1M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $4M of EBITDA that is $8M–$11M from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $30M of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 3.77M | 29.6M | 45.25M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 1.28% | 1.51% | 1.81% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 0.48% | 0.56% | 0.68% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 0.49M | 4.37M | 8.11M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 0.23× | 0.16× | 0.11× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 0.3× | 0.41× | 0.53× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 16.1%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $4M of EBITDA, that's $8M–$11M of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 0.41× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $1M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.