The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$7.99B of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($2.02B revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $1.05B. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt / EBITDA 1.3x vs 1.2x, EBITDA $1.90B vs $2.05B
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$1.05B of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $7.99B of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
Asia GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $7.99B of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $2.02B of revenue · fundable within $7.99B of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (Asia) | Retail Segment | Asia | $510M | 136.05% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | IoT & Connected Products | West | $340M | 158.73% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | IoT & Connected Products | Multi | $317M | 147.39% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (India) | Data Center Segment | India | $249M | 124.71% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Retail Segment | India | $227M | 170.06% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (Europe) | Retail Segment | Europe | $204M | 204.08% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (North America) | Data Center Segment | North America | $170M | 181.4% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($1.05B) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $7.99B of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.