The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $13.37B at entry to $164.01B today; $222.90B of the plan remains to the $386.92B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 4.6% toward 45% and bank the $193M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $8.90B vs $9.50B, EBITDA $1.90B vs $2.05B, EBITDA Margin 21.4% vs 22.0%
$222.90B of enterprise value stands between today's $164.01B and the $386.92B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$193M of $272M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $1.90B of EBITDA that is $3.81B–$5.71B from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $8.90B of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 1133.76M | 8900M | 13605.1M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 385.48% | 453.5% | 544.2% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 145.12% | 167.8% | 204.08% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 147.39M | 1315.16M | 2437.58M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 68.03× | 47.62× | 34.01× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 90.7× | 124.71× | 158.73× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 4.6%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $1.90B of EBITDA, that's $3.81B–$5.71B of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 124.71× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $193M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.