The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$11.33B of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($3.85B revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $2.01B. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x vs 2.0x, EBITDA $3.33B vs $3.50B, Revenue Growth 3.0% vs 4.5%
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$2.01B of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $11.33B of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
USA GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $11.33B of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $3.85B of revenue · fundable within $11.33B of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (USA) | Seeds | USA | $975M | 259.87% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | Adama | West | $650M | 303.18% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | Adama | Multi | $606M | 281.53% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (Asia-Pacific) | Crop Protection | Asia-Pacific | $476M | 238.22% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Seeds | Asia-Pacific | $433M | 324.84% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (EU) | Seeds | EU | $390M | 389.81% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (Switzerland (HQ)) | Crop Protection | Switzerland (HQ) | $325M | 346.5% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($2.01B) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $11.33B of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.