On this pageFunnel Forecast Win / loss Top deals

Sales / Pipeline 360

The front of the funnel — pipeline by stage, forecast vs plan, win/loss, and the deals that decide the quarter.

Syngenta · FY25 (modeled)

Top 3 global crop science company

49,000 employees · 12+ US sites · 100 countries

▲ Executive read· the answer, then the moves

Q3 FY26 commit $4.44B sits $758M below the $5.20B plan — $1.73B of best-case upside must convert to make the number. Coverage is 5.2x on $26.85B of pipeline; the call is winnable but only if the at-risk upside is forced to close.

2 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Bookings $16.80B vs $17.20B, Backlog $2.10B vs $2.20B

Do now — ranked by urgency

1
Convert $1.73B of best-case upside to close the $758M plan gapAct now
Why it matters
Commit $4.44B is $758M short of the $5.20B Q3 FY26 plan — the gap that decides whether the quarter lands.
What's driving it
Q3 FY26 commit $4.44B vs $5.20B plan
$1.73B best-case upside above commit
FYI
Pipeline $26.85B (5.2x coverage), $11.78B weighted
Owner: CRO
Open forecast →
2
$129.94M ARR at risk — Q3 FY26Act now
Why it matters
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
What's driving it
renewal window Q3 FY26
Signal: Renewal risk
FYI
Of $909.55M due in Q3 FY26, $129.94M is churn-flagged.
Owner: Chief Customer Officer
Act →▤ open the at-risk contracts
3
$173.25M ARR at risk — Q4 FY26Act now
Why it matters
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
What's driving it
renewal window Q4 FY26
Signal: Renewal risk
FYI
Of $1104.46M due in Q4 FY26, $173.25M is churn-flagged.
Owner: Chief Customer Officer
Act →▤ open the at-risk contracts
4
$108.28M ARR at risk — Q1 FY27Act now
Why it matters
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
What's driving it
renewal window Q1 FY27
Signal: Renewal risk
FYI
Of $822.93M due in Q1 FY27, $108.28M is churn-flagged.
Owner: Chief Customer Officer
Act →▤ open the at-risk contracts

📈 Growth & revenueStep 1 of 6 · funnel & forecastCustomer 360 ▶All journeys

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↗ Where this connects — act / drill across

👥Customer 360· whose accounts the deals sit in 🧾Quote / CPQ 360· the quotes behind the funnel 🛰Market Intel & M&A· signals driving the pipeline 💰Finance 360· forecast vs plan

● LiveBuilt forCRO / Sales VPs· coverage & forecast callSales Ops· stage velocity & hygieneCEO / Board· will we make the quarter

Pavion is pursuing $26.85B across the funnel ($11.78B weighted). This view answers the CRO's two questions — will we make the quarter (forecast vs plan) and why we win or lose — and points at the deals that move the number.

Data backing: pipeline_stage · forecast · winloss · opportunity · kpi

$26.85B

Qualified pipeline

1080 opps

$11.78B

Weighted pipeline

value × win-prob

67%

$-Win-rate

won ÷ (won+lost) $

$16.80B

Bookings

book-to-bill 0.99x

$2.10B

Backlog

signed, not delivered

Coverage

Pipeline by stage

Value and win-probability rise toward the close — weighted value is what to bank on.

Qualify · 520 opps · 20% win$8.88B

Develop · 310 opps · 40% win$7.80B

Proposal · 180 opps · 60% win$6.28B

Negotiation · 70 opps · 80% win$3.90B

Dark fill = win-probability within each stage's value. Weighted pipeline totals $11.78B.

The forecast call

Q3 FY26 — $4.44B commit vs $5.20B plan

Commit, best-case and closed-to-date against the plan line.

Q1 FY26 · actualclosed $4.72B vs plan $4.55B

Q2 FY26 · actualclosed $4.79B vs plan $4.87B

Q3 FY26 · currentcommit $4.44B · best $6.17B

Q4 FY26 · forecastcommit $3.25B · best $6.50B

Q3 FY26: commit $4.44B is $758M below the $5.20B plan; $1.73B of best-case upside must convert to close the gap. Black line = plan.

Why we win & lose

$-win-rate 67% · $9.27B won vs $4.55B lost

Clone the win reasons into low-win families; attack the top loss reason first.

Why we win

Superior platform / one-stop$4.55B · 142

Incumbent / relationship$2.82B · 96

Service & monitoring attach$1.91B · 61

Why we lose

Price$2.06B · 70

Timing / budget pulled$1.52B · 38

Product / scope gap$975M · 24

Read it: the platform / one-stop story wins the most ($4.55B); Price is the top loss ($2.06B) — tighten discount discipline (see Quote 360) before chasing new demand.

Move the number

Named deals in play

Signal-sourced deals convert higher — prioritize them.

Opportunity	Customer	Solution	Value	Stage	Win %	Source
AgroPlus — multi-region DC security + Cropwise	AgroPlus	Security + Monitoring	$270.7M	Proposal	60%	signal
Cargill — hub perimeter + video analytics	Cargill	Security	$181.9M	Qualify	45%	signal
Kaiser — nurse call + RTLS refresh	ADM	Integration	$134.3M	Proposal	50%	outbound
UPS — fire + mass notification bundle	UPS	Fire Safety	$101.8M	Qualify	40%	outbound
Align — mfg expansion AV + access	Land O'Lakes	Integration + Security	$67.1M	Develop	48%	signal
Ferme du Rhône — Security cross-sell (11 sites)	Ferme du Rhône	Security + Cropwise	$30.3M	Develop	55%	signal