The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $48.78B at entry to $598.43B today; $813.19B of the plan remains to the $1411.62B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 8.2% toward 45% and bank the $368M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $17.00B vs $17.50B, EBITDA $3.33B vs $3.50B, Recurring Revenue Mix 8.2% vs 10.0%
$813.19B of enterprise value stands between today's $598.43B and the $1411.62B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$368M of $520M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $3.33B of EBITDA that is $6.66B–$10.00B from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $17.00B of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 2165.61M | 17000M | 25987.26M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 736.31% | 866.24% | 1039.49% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 277.2% | 320.51% | 389.81% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 281.53M | 2512.1M | 4656.05M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 129.94× | 90.96× | 64.97× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 173.25× | 238.22× | 303.18× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 8.2%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $3.33B of EBITDA, that's $6.66B–$10.00B of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 238.22× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $368M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.