The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$-444M of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($164M revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $85M. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt / EBITDA 5.8x vs 5.0x, EBITDA $1.48B vs $1.70B
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$85M of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $-444M of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
South India GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $-444M of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $164M of revenue · fundable within $-444M of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (South India) | Loans Against Property | South India | $41M | 11.03% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | Construction Finance | West | $28M | 12.87% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | Construction Finance | Multi | $26M | 11.95% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (Central India) | Home Loans | Central India | $20M | 10.11% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Loans Against Property | Central India | $18M | 13.79% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (West India) | Loans Against Property | West India | $17M | 16.54% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (North India) | Home Loans | North India | $14M | 14.71% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($85M) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $-444M of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.