The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $88M at entry to $1.08B today; $1.47B of the plan remains to the $2.54B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 9.1% toward 45% and bank the $16M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Revenue $6.00B vs $7.50B, EBITDA $1.48B vs $1.70B, Recurring Mix 9.1% vs 10.0%
$1.47B of enterprise value stands between today's $1.08B and the $2.54B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$16M of $22M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $1.48B of EBITDA that is $2.96B–$4.44B from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $6.00B of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 91.91M | 721.5M | 1102.93M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 31.25% | 36.76% | 44.12% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 11.76% | 13.6% | 16.54% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 11.95M | 106.62M | 197.61M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 5.51× | 3.86× | 2.76× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 7.35× | 10.11× | 12.87× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 9.1%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $1.48B of EBITDA, that's $2.96B–$4.44B of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 10.11× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $16M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.