The front of the funnel — pipeline by stage, forecast vs plan, win/loss, and the deals that decide the quarter.
Q3 FY26 commit $188M sits $32M below the $221M plan — $74M of best-case upside must convert to make the number. Coverage is 5.2x on $1.14B of pipeline; the call is winnable but only if the at-risk upside is forced to close.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Disbursements $210M vs $250M, Book-to-Bill Ratio 1.1x vs 1.2x, Outstanding Portfolio $14.20B vs $16.00B
Commit $188M is $32M short of the $221M Q3 FY26 plan — the gap that decides whether the quarter lands.
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
$-win-rate is 67% ($393M won vs $193M lost); Price is the single largest leak at $87M.
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
Pavion is pursuing $1.14B across the funnel ($500M weighted). This view answers the CRO's two questions — will we make the quarter (forecast vs plan) and why we win or lose — and points at the deals that move the number.
Value and win-probability rise toward the close — weighted value is what to bank on.
Dark fill = win-probability within each stage's value. Weighted pipeline totals $500M.
Commit, best-case and closed-to-date against the plan line.
Q3 FY26: commit $188M is $32M below the $221M plan; $74M of best-case upside must convert to close the gap. Black line = plan.
Clone the win reasons into low-win families; attack the top loss reason first.
Read it: the platform / one-stop story wins the most ($193M); Price is the top loss ($87M) — tighten discount discipline (see Quote 360) before chasing new demand.
Signal-sourced deals convert higher — prioritize them.
| Opportunity | Customer | Solution | Value | Stage | Win % | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucknow Collections Team — multi-region DC security + Risk Analytics Suite | Lucknow Collections Team | Security + Monitoring | $11.5M | Proposal | 60% | signal |
| A. Sharma — hub perimeter + video analytics | A. Sharma | Security | $7.7M | Qualify | 45% | signal |
| Kaiser — nurse call + RTLS refresh | M. Gupta | Integration | $5.7M | Proposal | 50% | outbound |
| UPS — fire + mass notification bundle | UPS | Fire Safety | $4.3M | Qualify | 40% | outbound |
| Align — mfg expansion AV + access | Developers (Construction Finance) | Integration + Security | $2.9M | Develop | 48% | signal |
| S. Kumar — Security cross-sell (11 sites) | S. Kumar | Security + Risk Analytics Suite | $1.3M | Develop | 55% | signal |