Quality of earnings, 13-week cash, covenant runway, working-capital unlock and the value levers behind the PE thesis.
Liquidity of $18500M (≈ 37 weeks of cover) and $122170M of deal capacity make capital the lever, not the constraint. Free the trapped cash first: normalizing DSO to 48d releases ≈ $6774.1M and clears $517.0M of overdue receivables.
6 of 8 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: EBITDA $32.15B vs $34.00B, EBITDA Margin 18.2% vs 19.0%, Liquidity $18.50B vs $20.00B
Move to credit hold pending paydown; reforecast ARR net of likely churn.
Distress filings + overdue AR; churn risk High on $6.4M account.
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
Closing the DSO gap releases ≈ $6774.1M of one-time cash; $517.0M is already >60 days overdue and at collection risk.
Targeted collections sprint on $0.9M; tighten milestone billing on ISC projects.
ISC (67d), Birla Cellulose (66d), Birla Estates account (67d) lifting blended DSO.
$29659.55M of add-backs (92% of adj.) — the diligence-grade walk.
Organic vs. acquisitive vs. price/mix vs. cost.
Net weekly cash (bars) and ending cash (line) vs. $20M minimum. Forecast trough: $776.91M.
Net Debt/EBITDA deleveraging path against the 5.5x covenant ceiling.
Normalizing laggard brands to a 50-day DSO releases ~$230.3M of one-time cash.
Concentrated in newer cohorts (ISC, Signet, RFI) where billing discipline lags integration — the fastest cash win this fiscal year.
Annuity growth and where EBITDA is generated.
Total AR $3143M
Overdue (>60d) = $517.0M at collection risk.
Accounts ranked by DSO and credit/churn risk.
| Account | Revenue | DSO | NRR | Credit/Churn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birla Estates | $173.25M | 67d | 97% | High |
| Shree Traders | $349.2M | 63d | 104% | Medium |
| Godrej Properties | $110.99M | 59d | 100% | Medium |
| Reliance | $384.39M | 58d | 112% | Low |
| Welspun | $194.9M | 55d | 105% | Medium |
| IBM | $262.58M | 52d | 101% | Medium |
| UPS | $305.89M | 49d | 106% | Low |
| Raymond | $503.5M | 47d | 108% | Low |
| DLF | $435.83M | 44d | 119% | Low |
| Trident Group | $157.01M | 41d | 110% | Low |
EBITDA uplift, DSO normalization and synergy realization (as-acquired → current).
| Brand (cohort) | Acq. | Revenue | EBITDA % | DSO | Integration | Synergy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birla Opus | 2021 | $920.38M | 243.63→378.98% | 71→58d | 100% | 92% | Integrated |
| Aditya Birla Capital | 2021 | $595.54M | 216.56→351.91% | 66→54d | 100% | 90% | Integrated |
| UltraTech Cement | 2022 | $2598.73M | 297.77→433.12% | 68→56d | 95% | 88% | Integrated |
| Birla Pivot | 2023 | $1570.06M | 270.7→351.91% | 70→61d | 82% | 74% | In progress |
| Livaeco | 2024 | $1109.87M | 243.63→297.77% | 73→67d | 60% | 55% | In progress |
| Aditya Birla Renewables | 2024 | $1001.59M | 243.63→324.84% | 71→60d | 80% | 78% | In progress |
| Birla Cellulose | 2024 | $785.03M | 216.56→243.63% | 69→66d | 45% | 40% | Early |
Partner spend, DPO (working-capital lever), delivery and risk.
| Supplier | Category | Spend | DPO | OTIF | Score | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suryachem | Video Surveillance | $1732.48M | 45d | 96% | 91 | Low |
| DCW Ltd | Fire & Access | $1570.06M | 42d | 93% | 88 | Low |
| GACL | Critical Comms | $1109.87M | 38d | 90% | 85 | Medium |
| Hindalco | Video Surveillance | $730.89M | 36d | 89% | 83 | Medium |
| Tata Chemicals | Video VMS | $622.61M | 40d | 95% | 87 | Low |
| India Glycols | AV / Collaboration | $514.33M | 44d | 92% | 86 | Low |