The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $76.21B at entry to $935.04B today; $1270.65B of the plan remains to the $2205.69B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 12.1% toward 45% and bank the $460M of open synergy before exit.
3 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: EBITDA $32.15B vs $34.00B, EBITDA Margin 18.2% vs 19.0%, Recurring Revenue Mix 12.1% vs 13.0%
$1270.65B of enterprise value stands between today's $935.04B and the $2205.69B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$460M of $650M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $32.15B of EBITDA that is $64.30B–$96.45B from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $176.61B of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 2707.01M | 21250M | 32484.07M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 920.38% | 1082.8% | 1299.36% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 346.5% | 400.64% | 487.26% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 351.91M | 3140.13M | 5820.06M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 162.42× | 113.69× | 81.21× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 216.56× | 297.77× | 378.98× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 12.1%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $32.15B of EBITDA, that's $64.30B–$96.45B of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 297.77× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $460M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.