The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$122.17B of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($4.82B revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $2.52B. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt/EBITDA 1.7x vs 1.5x, EBITDA $32.15B vs $34.00B
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$2.52B of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $122.17B of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
Middle East GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $122.17B of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $4.82B of revenue · fundable within $122.17B of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (Middle East) | Chemicals (Chlor-alkali, Specialty) | Middle East | $1.22B | 324.84% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | Building Materials (Cement, Paints) | West | $812M | 378.98% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | Building Materials (Cement, Paints) | Multi | $758M | 351.91% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (Africa) | Cellulosic Fibres (VSF, Yarn) | Africa | $596M | 297.77% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Chemicals (Chlor-alkali, Specialty) | Africa | $541M | 406.05% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (APAC) | Chemicals (Chlor-alkali, Specialty) | APAC | $487M | 487.26% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (India) | Cellulosic Fibres (VSF, Yarn) | India | $406M | 433.12% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($2.52B) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $122.17B of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.